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Scozzafava drops out

John Ray - November 1st, 2009 in News 0 votes Vote Up! Vote Down!

I always like scanning the news for political episodes that make for a good, quick and easy demonstration of the usefulness of positive political theory. Dede Scozzafava’s dropping out in the first place was surprising, but the median voter theorem easily predicts that Scozzafava would rather endorse Democrat Bill Owens than Conservative Doug Hoffman.

Owens and Scozzafava are both center-left candidates. Both are pro-choice, and Republican Scozzafava is in fact pro-gay marriage while Owens is merely pro-civil union. During her campaign, Scozzafava announced her opposition to the initial Senate health bill because it failed to “reduce costs by expanding competition across state lines,” though her main complaint was its failure to include tort reform. Effectively, Scozzafava is in line with Midwestern Democrats.

Though party affiliation is typically a better indication of voting preference than ranking of political liberalism or conservatism like the classic ADA scores, consider the differences between Scozzafava and the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman. He is anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, admits that the economy is recovering but is doing so “in spite of the stimulus, not because of it;” opposed to healthcare reform, and has a section of his campaign site dedicated to ragging on ACORN.

As such, I think the problem can be mapped as follows:

untitled

Scozzafava’s loss x < Scozzafava’s loss y.

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