That’s the title of the Organizations & Market post referencing this latest New York Times piece. We here in humanities land love to hear that our math can be useful math too. Hot on its heels comes this great crash course in Bayesian reasoning – required reading for every student interested in, well, doing probabilities right.
One of the common refrains in my field is that failures of Bayesian reasoning are behind lots of our errors of reasoning in general – Linda the Feminist Bank Teller and the Asian Disease framing problem immediately come to mind. Consider the first problem:
- Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
- Which is more probable?
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
And then the second. There will be a short quiz next period.
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It’s well known that statisticians are the people who count most in the world.
Statistics means never having to say you’re certain.
Statisticians are people who like figures but who don’t have the personality to become accountants.
Statistics are like bikinis…
they are very interesting for what the show…
but they are even more interesting for what they hide.
Statisticians are people who like figures but who don’t have the personality to become accountants.
Statistics are like bikinis…
they are very interesting for what they show…
but they are even more interesting for what they hide.